Futures Studies

Introduction to Futures Studies

Arqus Micro-credential

The Introduction to Futures Studies micro-credential is an interdisciplinary level 6–7 programme co-designed and delivered in collaboration by Vilnius University (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration), Granada University, and Fondazione Italiana per gli Studi di Futuro ETS.

Delivered in an online or blended format, the course is designed to address an educational gap by developing the student’s frame of mind to work with the future. It equips participants with frameworks to understand accelerating change, navigate complexity, build anticipatory capacity, and prepare for upcoming societal and organizational transformations.

Registration for students

Key information

The course will take place between: September – November 2026
Credits: 5 ECTS
Workload: 130 hours (44 contact hours + 86 independent work hours)
Language: English (minimum B1 required)
Format: Online / Blended
Level: Level 6 – 7 EQF
Participants: 10–100

Programme highlights:

Interdisciplinary focus on strategic foresight, anticipatory governance, and futures literacy
Aligned with European Commission, OECD, and UNESCO frameworks on futures literacy
Includes practical exercises with speculative gaming tools (“The Thing from the Future”, “2071: The Age of Humility”, “The Deck of Destiny”) and trend anticipation platforms (Fibres Online)
Features an interdisciplinary final project developing insights and future scenarios for complex problems

Target audience, dates and contact

This course, that will be held from September to November 2026, is designed for learners across disciplines seeking to develop futures literacy and strategic foresight capabilities.

Requisites:

Prerequisites: Ability to read, write, and communicate in English at a B1 level.

The course includes:

Contact hours: 44 total hours (34 hours of lectures/synchronous instruction + 10 hours of project preparation and presentation)
Independent work: 86 hours (independent readings, reviewing global developments, self-reflection, and project development)

Co-delivering Institutions & Teaching Staff:

Coordinating Provider: Assoc. Prof. Erika Vaiginiene — Vilnius University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Partnering Provider: Assoc. Prof. Alberto Bueno — Granada University
Partnering Provider: Prof. Roberto Poli — Fondazione Italiana per gli Studi di Futuro ETS

Content of the course

The UN Pact for the Future and related agenda documents frame futures studies, or strategic foresight, as a component of anticipatory governance, encouraging states to institutionalise periodic futures exercises across levels of government; within Europe, the Better Regulation framework, the European Commission’s foresight reports, and OECD guidance similarly mainstream foresight in public decision-making. UNESCO further promotes Futures Literacy as a key capability for navigating twenty-first-century challenges. In parallel, foresight units and programmes have proliferated across several European countries, while large corporations and consultancies increasingly embed foresight into strategic planning, signalling a broad and sustained demand. Unfortunately, courses that introduce and develop futures studies remain scarce. This course is designed to address this educational gap.

The aim of the Introduction to Futures Studies course is to develop the student’s frame of mind to work with the future.

One of the defining characteristics of contemporaneity is the acceleration of change. The progressive acceleration of change causes uncertainty and disorientation—both ordinary people and even high-level decision-makers struggle to understand what is happening and the directions in which the various changes are heading. Moreover, some—in fact, many—of the maturing changes present unprecedented dimensions that strain traditional tools.

The constant increase in uncertainty due to accelerating change and the unprecedented scale of global problems—in short, the complexity of the contemporary world—requires new strategic frameworks and new tools to measure the capacity of institutions and businesses to understand and prepare for upcoming changes. In a period of radical change and high levels of uncertainty, it is essential to understand the maturing changes and prepare for them in advance. The ability to anticipate contributes to the system’s resilience, helping it manage the multiplicity of forces and changes, both ongoing and imminent. Those who do so can both mitigate risks and capitalise on opportunities that may arise. Without a vision of the future, it is impossible to help businesses, institutions, and communities become informed and effective actors. To become architects of our own future, we need places that foster strategic conversations.

The curriculum covers five main instructional areas:

Introducing the subject and agreeing on the expectations for the content of the subject: Setting foundational frameworks and expectations.
The basics of futures studies: What is the future and why futures studies? Key terms, future history (or past), science fiction, and speculative design.
Strategic foresight: Public sector, corporate, and individual foresight; policy foresight (regional, national, geopolitical); introduction to global, regional, and national decision-making frameworks.
Methods for futures studies: Trend analysis, weak signals, wild cards, modal logic schemes, triangle of futures, and speculative gaming.
Project preparation and presentation: Interdisciplinary scenario development, project presentation, and peer evaluation.

Programme directors

Assoc. Prof. Erika Vaiginiene (Coordinating Lead)

Vilnius University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Course lead coordinating the subject introduction, strategic foresight frameworks, and methodology instruction.

Assoc. Prof. Alberto Bueno

Granada University

Co-instructor bringing interdisciplinary expertise to strategic foresight, decision-making frameworks, and policy foresight.

Prof. Roberto Poli

Fondazione Italiana per gli Studi di Futuro ETS

Co-instructor specializing in the basics of futures studies, anticipatory frameworks, and futures concepts.

Learning outcomes

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

Demonstrate knowledge of the basic concepts and terminology of futures studies: make a distinction among forecasting, foresight and anticipation, as well as an understanding of the main psychological and social biases that obstruct our future-orientation, main properties of the future, and the difference between “future” and “futures”.
Demonstrate holistic understanding of trends, megatrends and countertrends.
Think creatively and use imagination throughout the phases of a future exercise.
Apply critical thinking by combining knowledge from different disciplines to anticipate alternative futures and develop proposed solutions.
Demonstrate Futures literacy capabilities.

Teaching and learning methods:

Lectures introducing basic terminology, multidisciplinary analysis, and modal logic schemes
Independent readings of theoretical literature provided by the lecturer and analysis of documents produced by recognized organizations
Team games and gaming tools for predicting the future and speculative creation (“The Thing from the Future”, “2071: The Age of Humility”, “The Deck of Destiny”)
Practical exercises using trend anticipation platforms (https://www.fibresonline.com/)
Seminars discussing independent reviews of global developments across disciplines and applying the triangle of futures method

Assessment strategy

Assessment is structured as follows:

Self-implemented tasks (20% weight, during the semester): Independent reading reports, reviews of world events, and self-assessments of participation in speculative games evaluated according to criteria including critical insight and discipline perspective.
Individual project (20% weight, first half of the semester): Personal insights into possible futures, personal values alignment, and an action plan shaping an alternative future.
Preparation and presentation of a final project (60% weight, end of the semester): Interdisciplinary group work analyzing a complex problem, developing future scenarios, and presenting findings with visual materials/slides to a committee of lecturers and invited practitioners.
Peer evaluation: Group members assess peer contributions to the final project on a 1–10 scale, establishing a multiplier coefficient applied to the group assessment grade to calculate individual scores.

Keywords

microcredential